Battery Electric Vehicle Review – The Latest Information
Timothy Johnson, Corning Incorporated
- UN IPCC GHG goals for 2050, and how the car parc can satisfy them under various grid (BEV) and engine efficiency (ICE) assumptions.
- Regulatory Overview on BEV mandates
- BEV battery technology overview
- BEV Raw Materials
- BEV Charging
- Consumer Acceptance
The IPCC goals of 80% reductions from the 1990 car parc base can be met with a blend of ICEs and BEVs. If ICEs can drop GHGs nominally 30-50% more and the grid drops GHGs 50% via solar and wind, 50% ICEs (xEV) in the 2040 showroom might satisfy the IPCC requirements (to be refined). Battery technology is or will be up to the technical and marketing challenge, but there are concerns about raw materials, especially nickel. BEVs will be close to cost parity with ICE by 2024-26. For widespread consumer acceptance, ultra-fast charging will be necessary for a no-compromise vehicl e– 250+ miles in 10-15 minutes. This doesn’t matter as much in China due to aggressive BEV mandates. The charging infrastructure to do this will be expensive and challenging; projections show that to make money the chargers will need to charge gasoline parity prices or higher. Forecasts are nominally 10% BEVs in 2025 and 20-30% in 2030.